I'm serious. CFNAI
. July was revised down.
You can't have CFNAI this low combined with stagnant or declining real retail sales without ensuing sorrow:
I added in the gas/diesel prices. I can see why retail sales are stagnating, but still....
It's Mark's fault. He should be out there spending his money and he doesn't. Some cheeping whining BS about wanting to have money when he's 75. He should throw himself into the spending fray.
It does raise questions about what the Fed can accomplish. Arguably, they normally make the consumer spending side worse with their interventions, which is why you see the oddity of gas and diesel prices rising in the beginning of a recession. If lower interest rates spark a consumer credit expansion, then they can overcome the tailwinds, but we're not really slated for that.
I have some more graphs, but they are depressing. I need to scrub stuff to be able to deal with this. I'll be back when I have run out of bleach. I bought one of those big containers this weekend, so don't hold your breath. Also two mops (the kinds that have the spray nozzle built in) and a range of other cleaning supplies.
Based on the M_O_M scrub-dex, this is going to be ugly. I also bought shoes and anything else I could think of, but frankly, I just don't have that much to throw into the pot. I haven't put 20K on the car I bought less than two years ago.
I'm seeing light staffing and light stocking in retail, and grocery stores look like it is keeling over.
The problem is that entry-level salaries aren't going anywhere, and many are declining. And costs are rising. The bottom line is that we just haven't been able to accumulate the money this year for the expansive surge that we saw last year:
Last year we collectively stuck a whole lot of dough in our checking accounts from June through the end of August, and it fueled holiday spending. This year we haven't been able to do that., and rising gas and basic food costs ensure that we're not going to be able to make it up by squeezing the daily dollar.
We have been struggling with our CCs, but even that is worse relatively than it was last year:
One of the issues is services, especially insurance. Low returns are driving up insurance costs for understandable reasons, but it's another draw on the budget.