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Monday, September 24, 2012

CFNAI August

Well, we knew it would not be good. Look at the six month progression on CFNAI-MA3 (the moving three month average)

This latest month's figure is below the commonly accepted recession line of -0.70. Graphs and all at link, but you can find no happiness here. Look at the diffusion - it's broad-based.

The most irritating thing about all this is that the Fed's action will probably make things slightly worse, but it might have had a chance to influence matters positively if they had moved into action six months ago. Even then it would have been a long shot, but now it's just coals of fire.


Comments:
Just because every scary CFNAI chart needs an even scarier twin brother...

Grinding to a Halt
 
Correcton: I believe the -.7 line is for the 3 month moving average, not the monthly. So it is still above that recession indicator.
 
Correcton: I believe the -.7 line is for the 3 month moving average, not the monthly. So it is still above that recession indicator.
 
The three-month average is, yes.

The diffusion doesn't look very good. When I have the time I'll pull the data. The combination of the monthly plus the diffusion is pretty bad looking.

It will come back up, but the global situation and the US fiscal situation is such that realistically, it is hard to pull out of this.
 
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