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Thursday, September 06, 2012

Chief Metal Heart No-Nag

& I are back doing the cardiac thang, so I doubt I'll be posting tomorrow. I have to get up at 3:00 AM to take him in for his next appointment. 

Let me know how the employment report turns out! 


Good luck!

Let me know how the employment report turns out!

I'll spare you tomorrow's pain. There will be 40 million missing jobs give or take a few hundred thousand. Sigh.

I'm sorry. That just seems mean of me. I'll make you a deal. If you opt for the blue pill then I'll let you know if Mark Zandi says anything positive about the employment report. Wouldn't *THAT* be an unexpected surprise! ;)
Just remind Chief that you're both doing better than Europe.
I thought of Mark the minute I saw this one: Toilet paper priced like airline tickets

Hope the Chief is feeling better!

It's always nice to be thought of (toilet paper notwithstanding, lol ;)).

I've seen that pricing effect big time when it comes to Amazon's phasers.

It was $112 in July. Now it's back down to $79.99. (I paid $28.95 in 2009.)
40.6 million reasons to take the blue pill!

Save yourself. It's not too late, lol. Sigh.

Gallows Humor Decade
We definitely had an economic slowdown this year. The best employment picture this year was February with the highest number of more people employed from February the year before. Now in August we are down 280,000 jobs from then but it was worst in April when we were down 323,000 jobs and it has slowly clawed its way back to being down by 280,000 jobs since February. Remember, we have +/- two million more people working this year than last. The problem is that this isn’t enough and the hoped for job expansion this year stalled in March.

I use Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Situation Report, Establishment Data Table B1, non-seasonally adjusted non-farm private sector employment. The Household Data Table A1 showed from July to August a drop in jobs of 119,000 seasonally adjusted, and a drop in jobs of 568,000 non-seasonally. I don’t use Household data but it is an insight to the hiring, well, firing, of small businesses. It is in stark contrast to the headline number of 103,000 private sector jobs created where they try to manipulate massage the data to make it an annualized figure each month.


If the Household data leads the Establishment data this is a very bad sign for the economy.

Does it lead?
Quote from the Market Ticker:

"The reason the unemployment rate "edged down" is that 1.483 million people gave up and exited the workforce!"
"But what's worse is that there were a net 868,000 fewer people with jobs in August over July, despite there being 212,000 more people of working age in the population. That's right -- net-on-net over one million fewer people (adjusted for population change) were working last month."
Rigorous - I just started looking at it, and it's burning my eyeballs out. Man this is a negative surprise.

Unfortunately, the household net jobs and the establishment net jobs numbers do tend to converge over time. Household picks up negative and positive swings more quickly than establishment.

So far I haven't found any bright spots here. B looks a bit worse than A overall. Private diffusion index drops to neutral (50.2) and manufacturing goes to 36.4 from last month's 50.6?
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