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Monday, September 17, 2012

Empire Strikes Back

As my bulldog explicated this morning, "Gruffle". The current conditions index on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey was considerably worse than consensus, and thus "unexpected". General business conditions at -10.41, a sharp degradation from August at -5.85. New orders -14.03, unfilled orders at -14.89. Inventories were stable this month, so one expects the contraction to continue. This has been a recent decliner - Philly Fed reacted earlier this year. 

The level is somewhat of a red flag - this is the worst since before the Great Recession ended, suggesting that NY manufacturing has entered at least a Dinky Recession. Prices paid are increasing much faster than prices received, so profits aren't going to bail them out. The average workweek dropped a bit, but employment hasn't felt the impact yet. 

The full report is here. If you look at the graph, Empire is now about where it was during the first quarter of 2008 when we were in an early recession. However future expectations remain very positive. We will see, we will see. I can always get a better future expectations reading from the bulldog by holding a pork chop bone in front of her face, but I find the effect doesn't last long.

Singapore was also
an unwelcome surprise - August non-oil domestic exports declined 11% on a YoY basis. Tons of detailed info at the link. Total trade is down 7.1% YoY. Exports to the EU27 are down YoY 27%:.

Total trade ain't so hot either:
So no one's picking on NY. We all get our turn in the barrel.

Comments:
MOM,

The current conditions index on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey was considerably worse than consensus, and thus "unexpected".

Shocking! I thought we figured out over the last week or so that higher oil prices would lead to increased economic activity.

That's the problem with the Internet. It is sometimes difficult to determine when sarcasm is being used.

Finally, sarcasm has a voice in print with its own font

A sarcastic font is especially useful when writing to others in a foreign language. They may not understand what you’re saying, but they’ll know it’s sarcastic.

Just imagine how useful this font will be for foreign policy.

Oh, yes. The US is definitely willing to bail out Greece and Spain. The check is in the mail.
 
I can always get a better future expectations reading from the bulldog by holding a pork chop bone in front of her face, but I find the effect doesn't last long.

Ultimate Dog Tease

As a dog lover, it is one of my all time favorite YouTube videos. Seriously.
 
Nearly all of us remember the famous scene in which Han Solo has to be frozen in Carbonite for his journey to Jabba The Hutt in The Empire Strikes Back.
check this site out
 
It's a link with Mark's favorite word: High price of gas
 
Hmm. So far it seems like "unlimited" at 40 billion a month doesn't seem to be boosting the price of gas.

The Fed is close to a fail, but then what does it do? If it can't boost asset prices, what lever does it have?
 
Teri & MOM,

This Christmas could easily put the "D" back into 'flationary.

Just an opinion of course.
 
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