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Tuesday, October 09, 2012

NFIB

I refuse to read it. It's not good. You can if you want to suffer. I checked three things. Sales, earnings and employment. They were all quite bad. 

Employment is not surprising, although it is degenerating, given the changes in sales and earnings. Over the last two months, actual sales changes have been significantly worse than last year and significantly worse than 2008. I don't expect the same type of dive we had in October 2008, but the trend change is rather blatant.


This is not all that different from large companies - see this Bloomberg video. Or you can see this Political Calculations link left by a helpful Anon. This is a pretty classic business cycle recession.  

Comments:
MOM,

Employment is not surprising, although it is degenerating...

Do yourself a favor. Avert your eyes again.

October 10, 2012
Epic Exponential Trend Failure of the Day

This one shows the historical employment level of those aged 16 to 54 (going back to 1948).

Needless to say, we're a bit below the exponential trend established from 1960 to 1990.
 
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