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Sunday, October 28, 2012

One Last Thing

Despite official GDP, in the third quarter the US economy really did decline from Q2. See the September ATA report:
The American Trucking Associations' For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.4% in September after falling 0.9% in August. 

Compared with September 2011, the SA index was 2.4% higher, the smallest year-over-year increase since December 2009. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage was up 3.6%. 

During the third quarter, SA tonnage increased 0.4% from the previous quarter and 3.4% from the same quarter in 2011.
This is a slow but perceptible reduction in growth. There's more at the link. Rail is showing the same pattern. Inland water freight is even worse, although there may be some drought-related special drags on this one:

"We beat 2009" is not a winning motto.   

This means more than it seems - last year Q3 official GDP was 1.3% annualized, due in part to the impact of the Japanese 3/11 disaster. YoY comparisons should be increasing rather than declining.

Chinese official GDP is a flat-out farce. No way was growth anywhere near the reported. Japan is slumping. Europe - well, less said the better. Growth of US real disposable personal income slumped badly in Q3 - BEA calculates it at 0.8%, compared to Q2's 3.1%. Thus we move into 2013 in a hole, which will be somewhat concealed by the season of Bling. Tragically, that season is always followed by Ding. 

There is a real reason commodity players are getting cautious. The US remains a global bright spot, but it is apparent that our light is dimming.   

Comments:
One question: With the low water levels on the Mississipi which meant that the barges could not be loaded to as deep a draught, shouldn't there have been more transportation by truck or rail to compensate?

Al_in_Ottawa
 
I'm afraid MOM it's all moot. After today I've concluded Obama will win the election. 4 more years of this behavior and we will have crossed the tipping point. We are about to enter a dark economic age which I don't see us coming back from perhaps ever.

The Kingdom has been counted and found wanting.
 
We crossed the tipping point years ago. The destination's set, only the path and timing are still in question.
 
I'm sorry but Obama is not winning this. There's zero enthusiasm for him, even in the blue states. This is not going to be a 2008 turnout. I can see that even out here in the blue states. There are no Obama signs even in yards with signs for Democratic candidates. There are fewer Obama bumper stickers. All it takes is enough enthusiasm and drive on the Republican side to turn out and vote. We don't need "perfect candidates" running for office. That's how you get tyrannies.

I thought this story followed MOM's analysis of the job market link .
 
If you thought my previous employment charts were scary, then you haven't seen anything yet. Sigh.

November 2, 2012
The Great Employment Buckling
 
This comment has been removed by the author.
 
Teri's on to something.

Here in SoCal the landscape was absolutely covered with Obama stuff in 2008, yet you're hard-pressed to find so much as a bumper sticker these days. The only way you can tell there's an election is because of TV & radio ads, but even those are all about the California propositions.
 

M_O_M,

Slightly off-topic, what do you make of this data:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-02/chart-day-americas-geriatric-work-force

It purports to show that the majority of the new jobs are still being taken by the 55 to 69 cohort. I'm not sure how to square this with the fact that retirements are also through the roof.
 
Retirements are through the roof for folks that can't find work. They had good paying jobs, have had no luck in the workforce and went with retirement when they ran out of unemployment. People in that age group that can find jobs will jump at them and delay retirement. Simple as that.
 
Well, after last night, one can assume that even America will be moving towards some kind of greater socialism/statism.....
 
The post title - "One last thing" - surely not?
 
"One last thing" before Hurricane Sandy hit. Hopefully MoM is ok and will be resuming blogging after life returns to a bit more semblance of normal.
 
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