Sunday, October 28, 2012
One Last Thing
The American Trucking Associations' For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.4% in September after falling 0.9% in August.This is a slow but perceptible reduction in growth. There's more at the link. Rail is showing the same pattern. Inland water freight is even worse, although there may be some drought-related special drags on this one:
Compared with September 2011, the SA index was 2.4% higher, the smallest year-over-year increase since December 2009. Year-to-date, compared with the same period last year, tonnage was up 3.6%.
During the third quarter, SA tonnage increased 0.4% from the previous quarter and 3.4% from the same quarter in 2011.
"We beat 2009" is not a winning motto.
This means more than it seems - last year Q3 official GDP was 1.3% annualized, due in part to the impact of the Japanese 3/11 disaster. YoY comparisons should be increasing rather than declining.
Chinese official GDP is a flat-out farce. No way was growth anywhere near the reported. Japan is slumping. Europe - well, less said the better. Growth of US real disposable personal income slumped badly in Q3 - BEA calculates it at 0.8%, compared to Q2's 3.1%. Thus we move into 2013 in a hole, which will be somewhat concealed by the season of Bling. Tragically, that season is always followed by Ding.
There is a real reason commodity players are getting cautious. The US remains a global bright spot, but it is apparent that our light is dimming.
The Kingdom has been counted and found wanting.
I thought this story followed MOM's analysis of the job market link .
November 2, 2012
The Great Employment Buckling
Here in SoCal the landscape was absolutely covered with Obama stuff in 2008, yet you're hard-pressed to find so much as a bumper sticker these days. The only way you can tell there's an election is because of TV & radio ads, but even those are all about the California propositions.
Slightly off-topic, what do you make of this data:
It purports to show that the majority of the new jobs are still being taken by the 55 to 69 cohort. I'm not sure how to square this with the fact that retirements are also through the roof.
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