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Thursday, October 04, 2012

Remarkable How Little Movement

In the US, that is. Externally things are moving, for the most part down.

Initial claims are just one example. We've had this, that and the other, but the four week moving average is still 375K.  

This is really good news for the US, because it tends to draw in external money, which also helps to cushion external negatives. 

One remarkable feature of the current US economic environment is that credit is just not a constraint even you are even remotely creditworthy. NACM, NFIB, banking data. Everything seems to show that the general caution has protected us against the immediate cyclic effects of the slowdown.

There is extensive tightness on the consumer side of the economy, but what can anyone do about that? People have to tighten their belts and the economy as a whole has to work through it. Inventory cycle recessions are pretty mild as a rule, and don't last that long. 

Maybe we'll have a post-election bounce. The fiscal "cliff" is just something we have to deal with as well, but it sure would be nice to get most of the inventory cycle thing out of the way this year so that we can work on the fiscal disaster next year.

Comments:
What's good for Schwinn is good for, well, China.

http://moneyland.time.com/2012/10/03/strapped-europeans-swap-cars-for-bikes/


 
Very funny. Still, for China it is much better to be manufacturing 20% - 30% of an auto than a bike. It's very hard to maintain export growth when you are swapping auto sales for bike sales.
 
Agreed, but they're likely swapping autos manufactured anywhere BUT China for bicycles most likely made in China.

I assume, of course, that a Chinese bicycle protects one from the elements better than a Trabant.
 
Being a Time magazine article, it didn't surprise me that taxation was left out of the article. I think the cost of licensing a car and its driver have a lot to do with the switch.
 
MOM,

Initial claims are just one example. We've had this, that and the other, but the four week moving average is still 375K.

We do seem determined to stagnate our way back to prosperity.
 
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