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Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Spendingpulse Holiday Sales

Bloomberg article:
Retail sales grew by 0.7 percent from Oct. 28 through Dec. 24, the Purchase, New York, research firm said today, without providing a dollar figure in the billions. Sales grew at a 2 percent pace in the same period a year ago. SpendingPulse tracks total U.S. sales at stores and online via all payment forms.
Not a very positive sign. All the rest of the retail talking heads still have to weigh in this week. They all count differently, so totals will be different. 


Yeah, I think Xmas 2012 will not be very good to retail sales. But improvement appears to be on the way with today’s unemployment report. 400k is recessionary. 300k indicates the end of a bubble. 350k is perfect.
"350k is perfect" BLS "guessed" at the total for 19 states whose office's were closed for the holidays. Covered employees, those eligible to file initial claims,are less in number than a decade ago. 350k is the new 400k.
Joseph - perhaps I should have roused myself from my somnolent state to post on that.

The report is worthless - neither good nor bad. Any time when more than 15 states aren't included, the numbers don't mean much.

The timing of the Xmas/NYr holidays this year is very bad for the collection of claims data. The first reliable report will be the one that comes out on Jan 10th.

We've had wild swings in the data before at this time of year.

I'll hope - but not based on those numbers.
I stand corrected.
I stand corrected.
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