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Tuesday, January 08, 2013

NFIB - Jan

I was hoping for a rebound in this one, but it did not come through. What can one write about something like this?
Maybe next month? 

The good part is that credit is emphatically not a problem, according to this survey. The next NFIB report will be on the "big" sample, so we'll see if something gets better. 

The mechanical problem for these businesses is that earnings are too low to fund much growth:
It has also gone on too long for businesses not to be forced to spend some money - or shut down. But right now I don't think we are losing many small businesses. We should be gaining a few. Forced increases in compensation are cutting into profits given the weak pricing environment. 

Rail, year-end:


Better than -40?

CBO now estimates that Obama Care will increase the Deficit by $3.8 Billion over 10 years.

It's not the fall that kills you it's the sudden stop.
CF - yeah, you know that in this economy both the Medicaid eligibility and the private subsidies are going to be huge. When we already were running a Medicare deficit and an SS deficit, now all of sudden we are going to start subsidizing medical care for another 60 million people?

We can't afford it - I always said that.

I think we're flying straight into the mountainside. Controlled flight into terrain!

Also, the brilliant deal just closed on taxation is going to add on to the Medicare/OBC investment tax to send capital gains taxes weigh up for the wealthy, and don't try to convince me that the Laffer curve won't kick in! You are going to see a real negative effect from that. Very real.

-35 is very scary.

Is this a good predictor of economic activity? How well does it line up with other data?

I think we're flying straight into the mountainside. Controlled flight into terrain!

Perhaps it is a cloud "banking" problem. ;)

Mountain Goat in a Cloud Bank

Say . . . what's a mountain goat doing way up here in a cloud bank?
MOM- As usual we're in agreement. Shrink thinks the Admin's wish is to wreck things.

I've said before we're past the tipping point.

While I never get pleasure for seeing people unhappy, it's a good thing people will see their paychecks drop due to the SS re-institution. And no Women being in the new Cabinet. And a Secretary of Defense who hates Gays and Jews. This writing was all on the wall and people (Especially Women, Gays and Jews) didn't want to read it.

Actions have consequences.
Is Shrink blogging again?
Private Client.
I am sure that no structural changes will be made to reduce burdens on small businesses. The flow of new money supporting mortgages is high. Commercial and industrial loans are rising. Student loans continue strong. Car financing is cheap with continued securitization. Inflation expectations are rising. To the degree new money is getting the primary dealers to replace their Treasuries sold to the Fed is financing the deficit. The debt ceiling will be raised. This is certainly going to keep the 2013 economy growing modestly, barring any big and sudden policy change or external shocks. Paying the bill for continuing on with the status quo will come later.
JIC everyone forgot...

TrimTabs reported that the increase in unfunded liabilities was greater than all taxable income for 2012.

When the bubble that is our government bursts everyone will be in the blast zone.


The "unfunded liabilities" number is a joke. You could look at that number 20 years ago and realize that SS/Medicare is not going to pay out. Looking at it now is just...for laughs, I guess.

The only question is what income level will be the cut-off for old-age pensions.

CF - I don't like to hear that about the Shrink, because he has generally been pretty accurate.

I still believe that profound self-admiration coupled with a glorious ignorance about how most of the world works explains a lot of this.

I can't consider Obama a liberal at all. He's a new breed of whatever. He's nothing that generations past would ever have considered liberal.
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