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Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Not A Good Durables Report

This is for January, and maybe we'll see improvements as the year goes on. The bright spot is fabricated metals, where we built more capacity over the last couple of years - in part to support fracking.

The unfilled orders/inventories ratios are not where I would want to see them. Unfilled orders for MV are down 6.8% YoY, whereas inventories are up. Primary metals unfilled orders are way down. Fabricated metals unfilled order are nicely up. But when you look at the monthly new orders things mostly seem slack. 

I don't know which way this is going. Orders for exports aren't going to be a strong point this year, it seems. 

It's time for something other than manufacturing to pick up the ball and run, but aside from housing, no candidates are appearing. Mortgage rates are going up, and I've got a bit of a case of the willies, because new homes built for cash is never going to be a huge chunk of the market. 

Comments:
I wouldn't go near that sanjuanislandmusic website.

“Nothing other than manufacturing to pick up the ball and run, but aside from housing, not other candidates are appearing.”

We already had the silicon revolution, the internet revolution, and the real estate bubble. Now there is nothing to prime the economic pump. I don’t think housing is going to be much help as people will have long memories on that particular bust. Fossil fuel exports will be muted if the Democrat party base has its way, the same way they prevented the U.S. from providing the world with inexpensive, safe, and clean nuclear energy. Hopefully they never get the idea to ban something life saving like DDT in Africa. Maybe it would help to attack business profits and the rich. Or require everybody to support even higher medical costs than ever. How about higher tuition for college; there’s an idea. Maybe higher food prices. Higher wages for government workers.

Well, it does come down to houses and cars again and if that is all ya got it is all ya got. But then again, there is money printing and financial derivatives that do leak some money into the real economy.

Slow growth ahead.

 
>the same way they prevented the U.S. from providing the world with inexpensive, safe, and clean nuclear energy

wat. Like the ROW is a bunch of helpless children waiting on the Great American to save them?

GMAFB. It was our crappy GE designs that irradiated much of Fukushima.
 
So, just to be clear, it's a crappy design if it can't withstand both an earthquake AND a tsunami? If you read any of the sites written by people knowledgeable about the industry, those designs actually did pretty well. I'd recommend you start with Atomic Power Review I am assuming, of course, that you have an open mind about nuclear power.
 
Fossil fuel exports will be muted if the Democrat party base has its way

No worries, the Democratic Elite has has it covered. Rather than export fossil fuel to the rest of the world, import the rest of the world.

What could go wrong?
(They won't be living next to 'em.)
 
So, just to be clear, it's a crappy design if it can't withstand both an earthquake AND a tsunami?

Well, I don't want to be taking sides or anything, but I have to point out that, well, earthquakes cause tsunami. One really should design for that 1-2 punch.
 
Everyone seems to be glossing over the fact that the Fukashima (sp?) problem was mostly due to a 40-year-expected-lifespan reactor being operated for 44+ years.

My father worked atomic power projects for 40 years. He was a staunch supporter of nuclear power but he saw first-hand how safety took a back-seat to dollars. These weren't money-short projects, they were always well funded. But it was routine to skrimp on safety in order to gives outlarger raises, have expensive parties, etc.

Did I mention that his entire career was spent on federal government nuclear projects? Anyone who thinks the "line my own pockets" mindset is more prevalent in private business than in government is an idiot of the highest order.
 
Yep, there's that problem with the reactor too. As I understand it, the reactors were designed for both earthquakes and tsunamis. This happened to be a strong earthquake and tsunami than it was built for.

My husband was a machinist and did his apprenticeship at Bingham Willamette, where they built the TMI reactor. I have concerns about nuclear power, but feel that it can be used short term to transition away from fossil fuels. I think there's too much fearmongering about it.
 
The U.S. Navy has been using nuclear power for over 60 years with a nearly unblemished safety record. Nuclear power can be used safely, but it requires constant vigilance and building to the highest possible standards.

We are experiencing a rebirth of our oil and natural gas industries. That means "Peak Oil" has been postponed. Eventually, we will need to switch to nuclear. We might as well be building some plants now to get the experience and stay ahead of the learning curve.
 
How are the uranium reserves of the world looking? A lot of our rarer resources seem to be evaporating.
 
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