Tuesday, February 12, 2013
Well, This Is Just Depressing
We're still at -30 for six-month business outlook. How is that even possible? With construction up, this thing should be in the 20s at the worst. During the entire 2008-2009 recession cycle, the number never got down into the 30s.
There has been a notable degeneration in actual sales over the last year, so I can't even blame this on mood:
We had climbed out to the positives finally last year, and then we keeled back over. But earnings and sales are very weak, so it seems like it isn't mood, but reality.
Inventory outlook isn't good either.Updated to add:
Construction really is up.
MV building may be slowing.
The market has broken above the last line of resistance before S&P 1576.
Unless it is a fake out.
Gas and stocks and junk debt will go up, until....
They either quit or karrumph.
Fortunately we do not have the built up disfunctionalities that existed in 2008. Still, it is not a great outlook.
The 30 this month for six month outlook in NFIB is, I think, the fourth worst reading ever on this survey. Since it follows two 35s, one can no longer dismiss it.
I mean, anyone looking at stock prices in December 2007 would not have said that a recession was underway, would they? And if the wealth effect is so powerful, how did the 1929 and 2008 even happen?
It's amazing the nonsense that people will believe. If rising asset prices actually did control, how would any bubble ever end? Money is a proxy and enabler of trade, and when asset prices go high enough to constrain trade, inevitably the jig is up.
I think with a different election result those numbers would have tracked change in sales.
These business people are also the main folk actually punished by the income tax rate increases ... the folk who have already made their money and have it in tax-exempt investments, not so much.
It's just the sort of thing we'd expect to see in an economic recovery in its "first inning".
Too much sarcasm? I always have to ask. Seems excessive again.
December 28, 2012
James Paulsen: 2013 Investment Outlook
With 6.9 percent deficit to GDP stimulus, almost 8 percent M2 money supply growth, a continuation of an unprecedented size and growth in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, a zero short-term interest rate, a record low mortgage yield, and similar policies evident about the globe, from an economic policy standpoint, the recovery seemingly has not even made it out of the first inning yet.
velocity and Main Street. If that doesn't show the need
for major tax code changes, I don't know what does.
No wonder Walmart had a bad February .
Also, tax refunds will be delayed this year due to the IRS having to prepare the forms after the beginning of the year, so that's going to hurt.
Gas prices aren't helping either.
It's kind of a triple whammy.
We better hope that a lot of middle-aged individuals are out there scrabbling, because I was just reading Rockefeller, and that didn't look good either.