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Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Down 30%

It's a landmark. Net imports of petroleum and petroleum products in the US for the most recent 1 week period are down 35% plus over the comparable 4-week period in 2011. See page 8. Total supplied is down 8% since 2011, but the one week numbers are not that reliable. Call it minus 3-4%, and minus 30%, to be safe. YTD YoY net imports are down 15.5%. In the latest four week period, net imports are down 16%.

This year domestic production has increased 22% YTD. Crude inventory ex-SPR is up 10.5% YoY.

FOMC today. Only they can keep US prices high. They will, never fear.  The US is now a pretty strong net exporter of finished petroleum product, which keeps domestic stocks low enough to maintain pricing pressure.

Comments:
Getting off of middle east supply is an overriding goal to domestic price.
 
Dear leader has set the price of $7/gal by the end of his administration. We are on track.

Energy independence has always been possible. It has always been about price. Apparently we are being told no price is too dear.
 
Rob - I do suspect that the price of a very weak economy will be found too dear.
 
So far, the voters do not appear to be holding the Democrats accountable for that. GOP establishment must like the high price too, or they'd emphasize the high price all the time in their talking points. Nobody wants to talk about the price inflation at the bottom of the economic ladder.
 
WSJ - true.
 
I don't think the supply of crude is the cause of high gas prices. Too few refineries and in the wrong places. Several East coast refineries went out of business. Many refineries in the Texas Gulf area are sending gasoline to the East coast and anyplace else (Mexico and some Carribean countries) where they can get higher prices. The East and West coasts get shorted and higher prices.

The EPA makes it hard to build new refineries and the old ones are expanded slowly...too slowly. Crude prices may go down, but refinery output has to increase to get lower prices. Sad but true.
 
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