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Monday, April 08, 2013

Inflection Point?

"The most since October 2008" are never words you like to read early in the morning:
Speculators cut net-long positions across 18 U.S. futures and options by 31 percent to 468,780 contracts in the week ended April 2, the most since October 2008, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Investors are betting on a decline in silver for the first time and have record bearish positions in copper and sugar. Corn wagers dropped the most since June 2010, leading the biggest ever decline in agricultural holdings.
If the Japanese keep going with the yen devaluation, other manufacturing economies will have to respond. 

I sense a disturbance in the force! 

Comments:
Actually this seems like a decent sign of a bottom in commodities as it did for most of them in October 2008.

The traders' commitments are bullish for gold, more bullish for silver and copper and the Canadian $, and extremely bullish for the British pound. Commercials are sometimes early but not often wrong.
 
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Japan is repeating a policy decision they made in the 1930's in response to the Depression. The economic portion worked right up until it came time to rein in the spending, at which point the militarists assassinated the prime minister. Not exactly a winning precedent.
 

Japan built up its military, Hitler bought guns AND butter, and Mussolini made the trains run on time.

Sadly, you can do anything with a bayonet but sit on it. In contemporary parlance, you can do anything with government-funded infrastructure except retire on it.

 
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We're being inflected!!

The Perfect Store(m)

How about those department store sales? Lookin' good!

The gallows sarcasm must flow. Sigh.
 
I have to say, as nice as it is to leave anonymous remarks, it might be time to require at least some sort of validation of humanity.

(Insert randomly-generated buzzword-gibberish with link here.)

-Contrary
 
(Please note that I do acknowledge that a pulse does not necessarily come with a brain attached)
 

Yikes! Deflation, Part Deux? Gold down, oil down, commodities down, equities down, dollar steady, Treasuries steady.

I hear the faint murmur of money-copters warming up.

 
Isn't the problem that the people don't have enough money, Neil?

The job market is slowly improving. Real strength on many fronts has to depend on that recovery.
 
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