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Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Laughing So Hard I Can Barely Type

Okay, there's a lot going on in my life. I have been working hard for over a year with SuperDoc to tie down some things about some of the major human regulatory processes and implications for pharmaceutical intervention. We are making progress in our model, with a couple of notable and apparently wildly unlikely successes with patients. The end point of this is to derive a suggestive model that can be used as a clinical assessment tool to predict success or failure with various treatment options, to detect early indications of trouble, and hopefully to allow early intervention with some degenerative processes.

I'm not going to write about what I am doing, because it is a tool for doctors - you put this stuff out on the internet, and who knows who is going to read it and do something stupid to his- or herself, or to someone the person loves? But I'm not going to quit doing it, either, because we think we're getting somewhere. Nor is this anything that can be passed on to anything but other superdocs for explication, because it isn't going to make any pharmaceutical companies any money, as far as I can see. In the US, medical research is mostly focused on making money and drug interventions. This is a clinical intervention, and our system is almost set up to prevent that. 

So what I am posting about today will be GDP. That's what has me laughing. BEA is revising data, and I'm not going to use their revised data. I think this last set of revisions is highly entertaining.They showed up in this GDP release for the first time.

Of course, BEA explained these revisions earlier, and I had developed a prospective way of coping with them. I have to go through the revised figures with a fine-tooth comb for the next couple of releases to see how well that is going to work in practice. Worse yet, BEA has fubarred GDI with some of these changes. The major changes are explained well in the current release.

For the time being, the best figure to use will be final sales of domestic product and final sales to domestic purchasers, both real and current. 

The trajectory for real final sales of domestic product for the last three quarters are 2.2, 0.2 & 1.3, with the 1.3 being Q2 2013. 

Not too bad, really. There's an old joke about economizing which basically consists of the punchline "Assuming a housing recovery...." Hahaha! It never gets old, because it is so true. 

We do have a housing recovery, but the problem is that the housing recovery is going to be slow and mild, except for the investor-Fed-spawned surge of cash sales. That wears out on its own, but until it does the other part won't have tons of momentum. Rising mortgage rates and rapidly rising home prices are a big wet blanket for first-time purchases. 

If you do look at the report, you'll see that sequestration a la government spending wasn't nearly as much of a factor as purported. 

More about this later, but for now I've got to run.

Sounds like a subscription app, if you can boil the process down to a series of questions and formulae.

Or, if regulations prevent making money on it (and you're feeling charitable), a monster Excel spreadsheet that can be described in a journal article.
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Glad your back and that it was just "work" that left your readers wondering what was going on.
You have the most perceptive views on this economy!
This GDP revision is not too funny for me. I have to explain to my followers why everything I told them about economic growth since the recession was wrong.

I have pretty well explained to them the insanity of including unfunded pension liabilities as part of GDP growth. Yes, those Detroit pensions that won't be paid have been included in GDP growth now.

We do have a housing recovery, but the problem is that the housing recovery is going to be slow and mild, except for the investor-Fed-spawned surge of cash sales.

Real Estate Loans at All Commercial Banks (Musical Tribute)
GDP: Gross Domestic Promises.
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