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Wednesday, June 25, 2014

That Incredible Recovery

Real GDP rolling annual percent change:

As you can see, we just can't get out of the recession zone in any convincing manner. So while we may not be in a recession, we remain so close that it does feel recessionary.


Well, when GDP growth is approximately equal to inflation, it's not going to feel like a party.

No, Neil, it is not.

But more interestingly, today's update set a really low possible upward mark for GDP this year - well below 2%.

So the odds for recession are increasing sharply. Even if we got 2.5% growth the rest of the year, that would put GDP net for 2014 at close to 1.5%, which is surely the "new normal" recession line.

Probably the best possible, wildly optimistic estimate is 1.7%. But it relies on rates of growth we have not seen without any real explanation of how they will be generated.
In the 2000's we had a "jobless recovery". Now we have a "recoveryless recovery".
No Wealth Recovery In Sight For Most Americans


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