Wednesday, June 25, 2014
That Incredible Recovery
As you can see, we just can't get out of the recession zone in any convincing manner. So while we may not be in a recession, we remain so close that it does feel recessionary.
But more interestingly, today's update set a really low possible upward mark for GDP this year - well below 2%.
So the odds for recession are increasing sharply. Even if we got 2.5% growth the rest of the year, that would put GDP net for 2014 at close to 1.5%, which is surely the "new normal" recession line.
Probably the best possible, wildly optimistic estimate is 1.7%. But it relies on rates of growth we have not seen without any real explanation of how they will be generated.