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Friday, June 05, 2015

Ah, Thar She Blows

You know, even Canada blew out employment in May.

As for the US - the Household and the Establishment agree at 272/280K.

The life, meat, and fascination of this report comes from Table A-8, which breaks down employment by categories. And there, my friends, we see a situation that makes a whole lot of sense. The life in this economy and the big gains are coming from self-employed. Over the last few months we have seen an SA drop in private industry, and a very large gain in self-employed:
It does not leave the IMF much of a leg to stand on with the plea/command to not raise rates until 2016. 

I am very busy, but more about this when I get a chance. 

CONTINUED:
Okay, so far we have Gordon and Teri as thread winners: Teri: But first let's make the minimum wage $15 an hour! Because those folks deserve a living wage! 
Gordon:  I am seeing anecdotal evidence of Obamacare's impact almost daily in the retail world.

Companies that supply labor for store remodels and resets will not let workers work more than three days a week.
...
The assistant manager told me she cannot keep anyone good, because she can't let them work over 29 hours a week. There's no point in training them, as it will be wasted as they will bail out for something full-time elsewhere as soon as they can.


Yes, if you are going to impose payroll costs higher than the return on the labor, you are going to generate a lot of self-employed. It may be illegal for a person to work for a wage of $12 an hour, but there's nothing to prevent that person in many cases from agreeing to do that labor as an independent for a price that is equivalent to $9 an hour. It may be illegal for companies to employ persons for 30-35 hours a week without paying a fine if they don't pay for insurance, but there is nothing to prevent them from contracting with individuals by the job, at which point the possible fines do not enter the equation. 

 There is also evidence of construction picking up, and construction generates large numbers of self-employed. Always.

And then we have Charles: Since Obamacare, my company is looking at contractors first and employees as a last resort. Employees (aka skeleton crew) are now considered stakeholders, the pay may not be commensurate but the job security is there...

Yes, and the tightening financial margins shown in the NACM CMI show up as a reluctance of companies to hire for the longer term. 

So we have a shift in growth:
This is the total employment level - the self-employed, and one can see that since February, the YoY has been dropping. 

As for construction, I'll let your alert minds decide how much of a factor it is, versus regulatory overreach:
The funniest part about this is what it portends politically. Statistically, these independents turn into political Independents, who frown upon too much government meddling. 

If the government creates a situation in which a person who wants to work full time has to go into business, that government should be prepared to pay the price in voting patterns.

Comments:
Remaking the U.S. In the image of eastern Oregon: bring your own job.
 
With the Q1’15 labor cost index surging and output per hour stalling, it makes sense for employers to hire. Not.

The surge in self-employed is not hiring by definition. The surge in government employment IS hiring (but of the bad kind).

The only explanation is that the A survey is bunk. Or, B survey is bunk.
I don’t believe in anything any longer except my stock market technical system which is null and void as the market goes sideways for five + months.

 
But first let's make the minimum wage $15 an hour! Because those folks deserve a living wage!
 
Since Obamacare, my company is looking at contractors first and employees as a last resort. Employees (aka skeleton crew) are now considered stakeholders, the pay may not be commensurate but the job security is there...
 
I am seeing anecdotal evidence of Obamacare's impact almost daily in the retail world.

Companies that supply labor for store remodels and resets will not let workers work more than three days a week. The supervisors will book you in under another company for the other two days, if needed.

I was in a small town grocery store/hardware/video store combo this week. I mentioned to the assistant manager that the stocking crew was making many shelving mistakes--more than I've ever seen. This is Minnesota, after all. Once upon a time workers from here were sought for their work ethic.

The assistant manager told me she cannot keep anyone good, because she can't let them work over 29 hours a week. There's no point in training them, as it will be wasted as they will bail out for something full-time elsewhere as soon as they can.
 
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