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Sunday, July 12, 2015

They're Still Meeting (Deal!!!)

Update: Deal done, Troika returns with a veto over economic legislation, the state assets fund will be created and located in Greece, Greek parliament given a list of legislation due on Wednesday, after which final negotiations will begin. Only after the Troika passes Greece in one successful economic review will any consideration of review of loan terms and schedules (extension/interest grace) be considered. Crucially, the statistics bureau is to be made legally independent - i.e. no more futzed figures. English version of framework here.  Note that Greece gets nothing without complying with multiple staged requirements, including the supervision of the "Institutions", i.e. Troika.

FAZ's coverage is hilarious, with pictures of crashed-out journalists on their all-nighter. You don't have to read German - just look at the pictures.

At this point, it's reminding me of Glengarry, Glen Ross.They're reported to be in another pause for private consultations.

The concept of putting the privatization sales assets and funds in a trust fund securing the creditors is reported to be one of the sticking points, the other being the issue of how long the European bailout fund will be expected to carry the obligation to Greece. 

With direct write-offs being apparently off the table, a "long-term non-interest-bearing loan" is the apparent solution to Greek financial insolvency. The question is duration, and who or what will pick up the "asset" upon official termination.

When I was a child, my father used to say "That wasn't a theft - that was just a long-term non-interest-bearing loan!" 

El Pais, international edition, which has been consistently providing highly detailed coverage which seems to be accurate, is currently reporting that Greece tried to agree last night to a milder version of the real-asset trust fund (Greece state privatization sales), but that the IMF disagreed on the amounts that could likely be gained. I stuck that in Google Translate.

IMF will be negotiating for Greece in its request for a debt write-down (explicit or by the no-interest loan route). IMF's framework requires debt sustainability. 


"long-term non-interest-bearing loan"

Coming soon, to your IRA account. We are all Greece now.

The immediate posting of $50 bil in collateral is additional liability. Think about it. To get their collateral back they have to pay $50 billion. So if their debt was $300 billion it is instantly $350 billion. I am staggered at Tsipras's turnaround. He had the support of the people of Greece and he could have lead them to a separate currency and massive reforms. He chickened out or the Obama administration made a backdoor deal with him.
Joseph - once the banks were shut down, it was difficult to reopen them.

In any case, he didn't have the support of the Greek people for the drachma.

As this wears on, he may get it. You're right about the debt total.

Neil - if we aren't careful, yes. Because when you combine our state/local government debt and our federal debt, we are running about 100%, and there is no possibility of that continuing for very long.
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